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Civil Engineering PE

Category - Scheduling

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Using the three-point estimate technique, what is the estimated time to complete a project based on the following scenario?

Debbie is preparing a statement of qualifications for a client who needs to hire an engineering firm to design a new outfall structure. Debbie needs an overall estimate of the time it may take to complete the project, even though many critical design issues are unknown. Debbie asks three engineers for their best guess. Steve thinks it will take only 1 year. Jenny estimates 3 years. Kyle, who has designed similar structures, thinks a realistic estimate is 2.5 years.
  1. 1.8 year
  2. 2.3 years
  3. 2.4 years
  4. 2.8 years
Explanation
Answer: B - Based on the three-point estimate technique, the estimated time to develop the new outfall structure design is 2.3 years.

Solution: Use the three-point estimate (E) equation to determine how many weeks it will take to complete the project

E = (a + 4m + b)/6

Where a = the best-case estimate = Steve’s first estimate = 1 year
m = the most likely estimate = Kyle’s estimate = 2.5 years
b = the worst case estimate = Jenny’s worst case estimate = 4 weeks

Therefore,

E = [(1 year) + 4 (2.5 years) + (3 years)] / 6
= (1 + 10 + 3) / 6
= 2.3 years
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