NAEP Science Grade 12

Category - Earth Science

A scientist collects 50 years of temperature data from the Midwest that show a steady increase in daytime summer temperatures. Which of the following is the best way for the scientist to use these data to make predictions about how the average temperatures may increase in the coming years?
  1. Plot the data set and extend the line of best fit into the coming years.
  2. Take the median of the data set and add that to the average temperature for each coming year.
  3. Determine the range of the data set and assume any future increases will be within that range.
  4. Calculate the total change over time in the data set and assume it reflects the minimum increase in the future.
Explanation
Correct Response: A. The scientist collecting the data can plot a line of best fit for the data set and then extend the line of best fit to predict likely future trends. It is impossible to know the average temperature for each coming year (B) and therefore adding it to the median of the data set is not possible. The range of the data set (C) is the difference between the highest and lowest values and does not provide information useful for predicting future trends if the temperature is increasing over time. Calculating the total change over time in the data set to predict the minimum future increase in temperature (D) is vague and does not specify over what time period that minimum increase can be expected so it is not the best tool for predicting future trends.
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