NAEP Science Grade 12

Category - Earth Science

Media accounts of major hurricanes often mention a growing concern that global warming will increase the frequency of major hurricanes affecting the United States. Most climatologists are uncomfortable with this kind of statement from the media primarily because it is: 
  1. A generalization that does not accurately reflect the complexity of research on the topic.
  2. An unsubstantiated rumor without any support in the broader scientific community.
  3. A government issue that only official agencies should address to avoid unnecessarily scaring the public.
  4. An unethical strategy for selling news that may cause disruption to the larger economy.
Explanation
Correct Response: A. Climatologists generally do not directly attribute changes in the climate system, such as an increase in hurricane frequency, to global warming. This is because the climate system is a highly complex system that responds to change through numerous feedback loops that are still only partially understood. The idea isn't entirely made-up (B) as warmer oceans do increase the probability of hurricane formation, but ocean temperature is only one part of the complex sequence of events that leads to the development of a major hurricane. Most climatologists do not see climate change issues as only being a government concern (C), and while they do not like it when the media inaccurately reports science (D), it is the accuracy of the reporting that primarily concerns the scientific community and not the consequences of the reporting. 
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