Practice Quiz

AP Psychology

Category - Psychology

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Linda has been buying a lottery ticket every Friday for the past 15 years. She hasn’t won anything yet but she thinks it will happen every time she pays the $2. What is the likely reason that Linda overestimates her chances of winning big at the lottery?
  1. anchoring and adjustment heuristic
  2. wishful thinking heuristic
  3. availability heuristic
  4. I-hate-my-job heuristic
  5. perceptual salience
Explanation
Answer: C - The availability heuristic is the tendency of people to predict the frequency or the likelihood of an event. This phenomenon was first reported by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman.
Key Takeaway: The availability heuristic allows people to predict the frequency or likelihood of an event. When this likelihood is grossly mistaken (such as the 1 in 14 million chance of winning the lottery), then it results in a cognitive bias. Linda is using an availability heuristic to predict her winning the lottery when the odds point to it being an extremely rare event.
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